A lot of talented race prognosticators post here, and I don't ever want to step on toes or pry into proprietary methods for getting the answer right. That said, I thought it might be useful to do what surgeons do and try to calibrate the errors that inevitably occur, to try to figure out what went wrong (or right, for that matter), why it went wrong (or right), and what needs to occur the next time the situation turns up. One very general example from last week (days I didn't look at during the time): Wednesday (I think it was), the favorite came in first 6 times and 2nd four times--the market was deadly in its accuracy, and I guess not very many people got paid very well. Thursday 0 favorites came in first and only one or 2 came in second--a lot of people out there losing and a couple making out like bandits. Me, I prefer to be one of the latter, and the only way I can see to do that is to learn 'not to make a mistake' as someone says. And what better way to learn than to go through the painful, necessary, but not necessarily private, self-critique.

I propose one race a day. Think about the race beforehand, post your ideas over in the handicapping section, give your best thought, and if it blows up, figure out why if you can or rely upon the group thought to make sense of it. If racing luck was the reason, be fair with yourself. If an overlooked detail was the reason, put that down. And if you hit it cold (and if you're ready to tell why) crow like a 6 a.m. rooster! To be honest, I think this is a useful exercise even for a professional handicapper.

So whaddya say? The Travers is on today. Worth a try?

Man

You are Talking about something that changes by a second meaning 4 lengths ?? here is the deal Go Forward , Not Backward. NEXT RACE . yesterdays Race seldom has some one feature that you can change to be right tomorrow.

often I lose do to Value , I may lose The Travers for that reason Who Knows NEXT PLEASE


OK So I won The Travers

Here is the M&M for You Quality Road Worshipers . " One Sprint Win on a Speed Biased Track don't make you Unbeatable at a Mile and a Quarter " Who was saying that Racheal the Fastest Filly Vs Quality Road the Fastest Colt ???? Might want to Review That analysis LOL

Pletcher will have some excuse and we may have seen the last of this one .

I am embarrassed to say that I looked at the 12th place finish in the slop at the distance and tossed the 1, never thinking to look to see what particular G1 that colt did so poorly in, nor did I notice there were still 7 more behind him. Desormeaux jumps off the 1 for the winner--that part was right, but no slouch rider jumped into the irons, and that part of the calculation should have been a wash, and Leparoux did just what the colt's moniker said: the Bluegrass Stakes all over again. I shoulda seen that train coming with the Zito horse--mesmerized by the potential money, I guess--no way does this sprinter compete without at least one mile work showing, and better more than one, not those pointless, fast 4's (by the way, I believe that first quarter cooked Quality Road).

Yorker, I respect you, I applaud your courage and your win, but I'm one who believes that those who don't study history are destined to repeat it. [I try to study it so I can repeat the good parts and learn to weed out the Our Edge's from my calculations. Also, it's the only way I can begin to make any sense at all out of this process.]

Hey E78Th Respect is Mutual . Its Just Disecting After just Creates hooda Coulda Shoulda AFTER you know the Winner . how Much Impact was the Rain , The Pace , the Post Positions ?

See I looked Hard at the 1 and Really Felt that the Pace could Set Him Up Nice for a Late Move . He Was My Wise Guy Derby Pick this Year . What I saw that was the Huge Factor Was His Inability to Handle a Dirt Track over Synthetic . It was My Overiding Factor . The Result Would Not have Altered That Factor Before the Race !!!
Disecting too deeply will drive you batty


I also spoke in past posts that Quality Road Acts like a Spooked Horse Every Time he Runs . Natural Ability But Spooked . He Confirmed that Today leaving the Gate. I knew He was not an issue right after the break . So Ability is not the only factor , observation is . Will He Break Well in Next ???

Thanks for the insight Yorker. I haven't looked at the dirt/synthetic angle very much at all, but it opens a whole new way of looking at the form. That's what I think these threads can do--I bet every angle is looked at by somebody here. I'm hoping we can over time tease them out, show their strengths and weaknesses for given situations. Then, as a bunch, over time we'll all be better--and better rewarded--players.

I must be dumber than a stump. I know what M&Ms are (plain and peanut) but I'm clueless as to what an M & M thread is.

thats a relief.I thought it was just me.

Jeez, if it was an S & M thread I could have called Wendy the Whip or Sally the Strap for some help.

Yikes, sorry. M & M is doctor slang for mortality and morbidity conferences--it's when doctors get together in a room and try to figure out why somebody didn't make it in an operation or in treatment. Sometimes they're rough; sometimes they're chalked up to unknown causes. But the keys to the analogy are that it's a group process and that there's no finger pointing. It's supposed to be a more scientific discussion to get to what the problem with the treatment or operation was.

I guess we have no doctors here, thanks for the info